NDC would win if elections were held today, says Synovate poll

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Picture credit: omgghana.comThe latest poll by market and political researchers, Synovate, says if elections were held today, the governing National Democratic Congress would secure the highest votes, but would fail to secure enough votes to win outright.

The results show that the NDC would obtain 34.2% of the total votes cast with the opposition New Patriotic Party following closely with 31.8 per cent.

The Progressive People’s Party would manage 5.3 per cent, leaving the Convention People’s Party with 3.6 per cent of the votes.

The People’s National Convention (PNC) secured only 1.9 per cent with the other parties obtaining less than one per cent of the vote.

Asked “If Presidential elections were organized in Ghana now, which Political party would you vote for?, 32.8 per cent of residents of the swing region of Greater Accra said they would vote for the NDC whilst 27.3 per cent said they would vote for the NPP.

The NDC would win a staggering 40.8 per cent against the NPP?s 15.8 per cent in the Central region, with the Western region reversing the score with 19.3 per cent for NDC and 44.6 per cent for NPP.
Ashanti region, the NPP?s traditional stronghold, was the most closely fought region, with NDC edging their opponents out with 33.5 per cent against 33.2 per cent for NPP. According to the poll, Volta region would continue to deny the NPP a foothold with just 6.4 percent of the vote.

In all six regions ? Greater Accra, Central, Volta, Ashanti, Upper East and Upper West ? would vote NDC, while four regions ? Western, Eastern, Brong Ahafo and Northern ? would vote NPP, according to the Synovate poll.

16.9 per cent of respondents across the country were undecided, with the biggest percentages ? 27.6, 24.6 and 20.4 – found in Greater Accra, Brong Ahafo and Central respectively. Northern Region had the least percentage of undecideds, 1.6 followed by Eastern (6.0) and Upper West (6.6).

Touting the credibility of the poll results, the researchers said “Careful attention was placed on the fieldwork to ensure that reliable and high quality data was produced. All completed questionnaires were submitted to the team supervisors who checked for consistency and completeness of all entries.”

They said, “Where incorrect entries were spotted, the interviewer involved was sent back to the respondent to clarify entries. All questionnaires were endorsed by the supervisor once all checks had been done and corrections made. Field supervision was also strictly adhered to. Daily field visits and spot checks were undertaken by the Ipsos Synovate field staff to ensure that interviews were conducted in a manner that elicits quality data. Other field work standards that were adhered to in the Omnibus survey included:

Interviewers worked in small teams of five with one supervisor; this ensured that supervision is effective
No interviewer conducted more than 5% of the total interviews

10% of the interviews were accompanied by a supervisor.

The supervisors back-checked 30% of the filled questionnaires within 24 hours after the interview in a particular region before questionnaires were submitted.”

Each of the 10 regions? sample, the researchers said, “was proportionate to its population. Urban/Rural split was 50:50 reflecting the national split as well as gender for Male/Female 49:51 respectively as existed in the sampling frame. Hence our sample is nationally representative and is self-weighted.”

Synovate have been conducting monthly surveys on the political fortunes of the parties contesting this year’s elections.

The parties have consistently dismissed the findings.
From: Ghana l Adomonline.com l Frank Agyei-Twum, with additional files from Myjoyonline

Normal 0 false false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 The latest poll by market and political researchers, Synovate, says if elections were held today, the governing National Democratic Congress would secure the highest votes.

The results show that the NDC would obtain 34.2% of the total votes cast with the opposition New Patriotic Party following closely with 31.8 per cent.

The Progressive People’s Party would manage 5.3 per cent, leaving the Convention People’s Party with 3.6 per cent of the votes.

The People’s National Convention (PNC) secured only 1.9 per cent with the other parties obtaining less than one per cent of the vote.

Asked “If Presidential elections were organized in Ghana now, which Political party would you vote for?, 32.8 per cent of residents of the swing region of Greater Accra said they would vote for the NDC whilst 27.3 per cent said they would vote for the NPP with a staggering 27.6 per cent remaining undecided.

Touting the credibility of the poll results, the researchers said “Careful attention was placed on the fieldwork to ensure that reliable and high quality data was produced. All completed questionnaires were submitted to the team supervisors who checked for consistency and completeness of all entries.”

They said, “Where incorrect entries were spotted, the interviewer involved was sent back to the respondent to clarify entries. All questionnaires were endorsed by the supervisor once all checks had been done and corrections made. Field supervision was also strictly adhered to. Daily field visits and spot checks were undertaken by the Ipsos Synovate field staff to ensure that interviews were conducted in a manner that elicits quality data. Other field work standards that were adhered to in the Omnibus survey included:
Interviewers worked in small teams of five with one supervisor; this ensured that supervision is effective
No interviewer conducted more than 5% of the total interviews
10% of the interviews were accompanied by a supervisor.
The supervisors back-checked 30% of the filled questionnaires within 24 hours after the interview in a particular region before questionnaires were submitted.”

Each of the 10 regions? sample, the researchers said, “was proportionate to its population. Urban/Rural split was 50:50 reflecting the national split as well as gender for Male/Female 49:51 respectively as existed in the sampling frame. Hence our sample is nationally representative and is self-weighted.”

Synovate have been conducting monthly surveys on the political fortunes of the parties contesting this year’s elections.

The parties have consistently dismissed the findings.

From: Ghana l Myjoyonline

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