Evaluate Alan’s potential

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Alan Kyerematen
Alan Kyerematen

As the New Patriotic Party (NPP) frantically gets ready for the final phase of the presidential primary on 18th October for an estimated cost of over 30 billion old Ghana cedis, one just has to ask: ?what is the point??

alan cashThe party held the first phase of its primary on 31st August.?? Seven contenders filed for the privilege to lead the party to challenge the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2016 elections.? Prior to 31st August, Nana Akufo-Addo was seen as the undisputed favourite. Some of the contenders spoke of biblical victories against him, while some likened the fight to win against him as reminiscent of a David and Goliath struggle.? Others spoke of an expected tsunami of votes in their favour to carry the day. At least one candidate openly proclaimed that he was on a mission from God and that he would win. In spite of all the claims by these contenders, the general consensus was that the primary would be a two-horse race between Nana and Alan Kyerematen.

On 31st August there was indeed a tsunami.? But it was a tsunami of votes for Nana Addo that swept away his six contenders and left a clear message for anyone who cares to listen. If there was anything biblical about the vote on 31st August, it was the biblical proportion of the votes won by Nana, and the clear prophecy of what is to come.

So, was the first phase a two-horse race?? Well, it was anything but a two-horse race. Nana won a resounding 598 votes out of 740. Alan won 59. Ordinarily, this should be enough to tell any astute contender in Alan?s position that the odds are simply not in his favour.? This message has not gotten through to Alan. But on the other hand, it may appear rash to say so. This is because in accordance with NPP rules, the party is now set to go into the second phase of the primaries that includes an extended electoral college of some 140,000 voters across the country.

If you are a supreme optimist, you may perhaps say that while only 59 out of 740 party executives were willing to vote for Alan to lead the party in 2016 against the NDC, an overwhelming majority out of the 140,000 expanded electoral college will somehow flock to vote for him on the 18th of October to make him the flagbearer. So, the Alan tsunami is yet to come if you believe this theory. But really? What is the basis of such a belief? Let?s look at the hard cold figures.

In the first phase of the primaries, Alan scored zero in Upper East, Upper West and Western Regions.? He managed 1 vote in the Central Region, 2 in Eastern Region, 3 in Greater Accra and 4 in Northern Region.? He did a bit better in Brong-Ahafo, where he had 11 votes and in Volta where he had 14.? He got the most votes in Ashanti?17.

The 740 party executives, who voted in Phase I of the primaries, may not be a conclusive representation of the 140,000 votes at stake on 18th October, but any good student of statistics sampling will tell you they provide a practical indication of the voting trend in the party.? There is also the small problem of any potential Alan voters in Phase II simply abandoning him after seeing his abysmal performance in Phase I.?? Who wants to associate with a losing candidate anyway?

Of course, Alan?s supporters might want to argue that the show is not over until it is really over, and that there is a big chance still waiting out there among the 140,000 voters.? But this belief is fanciful and misguided.? Let us look at the figures again.? Having won not a single vote in Upper East, Upper West and Western Regions, what is the statistical probability that in the expanded vote in Phase II, voters might come to him?? The single digit votes he won in not less than four regions hardly inspire confidence in his future as a potential winner of any serious number of votes in these regions. His best of 17 votes in the Ashanti Region pale in comparison to the 86 votes Nana won in the same region.

The harsh reality is that the Super Delegates? votes are a reflection of the wishes of their members on the ground.? A race in the expanded delegates? votes makes more sense if the result of the Super Delegates? votes is close enough to suggest possible uncertainties in the final outcome. But with only 8.01% of the votes against Nana?s 81.28%, statistically the outcome is certain.? All indications are that Nana will be elected as the flagbearer. So one simply has to ask: what is the point, Alan?

You may perhaps argue that the point is all about democracy. You may even say that Alan could improve his chances and win 20%; and this is being super-generous.? But at what cost to his party? It is estimated that the party will need to spend something in the vicinity of 30 billion old Ghana cedis to organise the primary on 18th October.? Technically, this is what the party will need to pay for Alan?s 20%, and to declare Nana the winner; and for Alan to give the predictable obligatory speech of throwing his support behind Nana and asking his loyalists to do same.

By any calculation, this is expensive.? Think about it.? From vehicles to posters to radio and TV advertising, the 30 billion old Ghana cedis can go a very long way in helping the party to wrestle power from the over-resourced NDC in 2016. Given the futility and the cost to the party, one has to ask again:? What is the point, Alan?

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