Deciding Imo Elections: A Tale Of Bloc Votes

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By Okwuaku Okwuaku

Governor Okorocha, the gubernatorial candidate of the APC and the incumbent governor of Imo state, is having it like never before among the Mbaike brothers- the electorates and people of Mbaitoli and Ikeduru. The support ground is swelling exponentially by every passing day, and powerful coalitions are either collapsing in favour of the APC or building up in favour of the governor and his APC party. Youth groups, women groups and men groups, including independent political and community groups are storming Lake Malinda, the Mbieri country home of the APC deputy governorship candidate, Prince Eze Madumere. But does it make any damn difference if the Mbaike ancient clan stands massively behind the governor and his APC party than they do for any other party? And why in the name of God will the Mbaike brothers prefer Okorocha and his APC to other contenders and their parties when establishment politicians like Chief Emma Iwuanyanwu of the PDP come from this very ancient clan?
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Of course, as the 2015 electioneering campaign heats up, there are spots to watch closely as the tradition holds. These are political hotspots that determine the final outcome of every election in every state of the federation. In Imo state, there are a number of such hotspots, but the most significant among them include the Mbaike clan vote, the Orlu clan vote, the Isu clan vote, the Anara vote, the Mbaise clan vote and the Ngor-Okpala vote, etc. In most cases, these clans are a number of council areas lumped together. Other areas of the state also vote, but these hotspots have been identified to have a traditional pattern of voting in blocs in massive volumes.

Political stakeholders, community leaders and party figures who control these political hotspots wield powerful political influence in every election, and their supports are direly courted by the different contending parties and their flag bearers in all categories. For example, during the 1999 elections, Chief Ifeanyi Ararume of the then ANPP was in full control of the Anara vote. When the PDP could not wrestle it off his fingers, they had to enter into a landmark negotiation with Ararume. In that case, Ararume was to be given an automatic ticket to the senate on the platform of the PDP. So, on the eve of the 1999 general elections, senator Ararume defected to the PDP from the ANPP. That was the most strategic blow to the chances of ANPP?s Humphrey Anumudu in that election in favour of PDP?s Achike Udenwa.

However, in Imo state the most powerful bloc vote is the Mbaike vote which comprises of the Mbaitoli and Ikeduru votes. As a matter of fact, the Mbaitoli vote alone is the most powerful and highest voting bloc in Nigeria. Mbaitoli is only followed by Kano Municipal council in voting strength and demographic mappings. So even in the presidential elections, Mbaitoli vote is always a factor to watch. So, if Mbaitoli vote alone is bigger than any other voting bloc in Nigeria including the all powerful Kano Municipal council vote, then a combination of Mbaitoli and Ikeduru will give you such a powerful place in the polity. A combination of many other hotspots will hardly give you a volume of votes close to the Mbaike vote. This is why the Mbaike vote is the most strategic, the most powerful, and the most courted bloc vote in every election in Imo state, especially in the guber elections. It makes a whole lot of difference if you are going to the poll with the support of the Mbaike brothers. And when you have their total support as Gov. Okorocha is having it now, then, you are closing the gap between you and your victory at the poll.

On the day the campaign trail of the incumbent governor, who is also the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, party reached Mbaitoli and Ikeduru in the company of his running mate, Prince Eze Madumere, something spectacular happened. The crowd and the number of political and community groups that trooped out to welcome him were overwhelming and unprecedented in the history of both council areas according to those conversant with the political histories of the areas. This singular most important incidence was the first warning signal for the opposition, especially the PDP, that the 2015 elections might have been decided by the very people that own the power- the electorates of the most powerful voting bloc. When you put it side by side with the fact that it is a known issue in the polity that the political elites and establishment politicians are opposing the governor?s re-election for the simple reason that he does not make money available to political stakeholders like in the days of the Ghana Must Go Republic politics, then it becomes out of place to say that the crowds were rented crowds. The wild jubilations and the rhapsodic enthusiasm among the crowd was enough evidence that the APC campaign team was facing a natural crowd of common electorates who, without any inducement or undue influence, came out to welcome the governor and demonstrate their hearty support. The support of the Mbaike brothers for the governor and his APC party has grown exponentially till date.

But why is Governor Okorocha receiving such a massive support from the people of Mbaitoli and Ikeduru- the Mbaike brothers, now than before? Analyst, insiders and close watchers have given several reasons. But, aside his incredible scorecard in development projects in Mbaike, the most significant among these reasons is the fact that among other contenders, the governor made the most strategic and smartest move in the choice of his running mate. The APC deputy governorship candidate, Prince Eze Madumere, MFR, is from the legendary lineage of Duruakuasha in Mbieri, Mbaitoli. He is the son of the influential monarch of Ezi Mbieri, HRH Eze Henry Madumere. So, Gov. Okorocha, intentionally or unintentionally, has made a deal with the people of Mbaike. So in order to woo the Mbaikes, the brothers of Madumere and their all powerful bloc vote, the governor is coming to the table of negotiation with a very powerful bargaining chip. Madumere is that bargaining chip. He is like the blood of the lamb. When an Mbaike man raises his sword against the governor and his APC and sees the face of his brother, Madumere, he will not proceed with the fight. It sounds like a joke, but that is exactly what is playing out in all political enclaves in Mbaitoli and Ikeduru. As a matter of fact, the deputy governor is the one heading and doing the actual electioneering campaigns in all communities of Mbaike. So everyday he meets one-on-one to interact with his powerful brothers and seek their support, and the response has been outstandingly massive.

Maybe, someone will ask why the difference between the governor?s relationship with the people of Mbaike now and than that of 2011, since Prince Eze Madumere was part of the governor?s team in 2011. The answer is straight and simple; No Mbaike son or daughter was part of the ticket that brought the governor to power in 2011. The Mbaike brothers went to the elections with no stakes on the Okorocha ticket. People like Madumere never asked Mbaike people for vote as a candidate would do. However, since the election in 2011, the governor has done a lot to demonstrate to Mbaike people that he has all the good will to give them a prime place in the polity through political inclusion and development projects in all areas. Aside other sons and daughters of Mbaike that were appointed into the governor?s cabinet, Prince Eze Madumere was appointed the Chief of Staff to the governor during which his exploits in the Nigerian political space earned him a place in the Nigerian Hall Of Fame. He was decorated by the President with many other accomplished Nigerians as member of the Federal Republic, MFR. He was later elevated to the position of the No 2 citizen of the state. Since then Madumere has attracted numerous developments to Mbaike like no administration has done. Now, the governor, among other communities, has chosen Madumere, an Mbaike son as his running mate in the 2015 elections. So, in this electioneering campaign season, Madumere is traversing the entire landscape of Mbaike asking his brothers to vote him and his boss back to power, come April 2015 to consolidate the gains already made by the Rescue mission. So, why won?t the dynamics of the relationship between the governor and the Mbaike brothers enter a new gear forward?

Again, despite the fact that Madumere has leveraged on his position and personal relationship with the governor to attract developments to Mbaitoli and Ikeduru, it is a common knowledge among the political stakeholders of Mbaike that the fact that Madumere did not bring much of the Mbaike support to the Okorocha-Agbaso ticket in 2011 was a significant factor and a prominent moral issue in attracting development to the clan as he ought to. So, in these 2015 elections the people of Mbaitoli and Ikeduru are seeing reasons to give their total support to Gov. Okorocha and the APC party. In one hand they want to demonstrate their appreciation to the governor for choosing one of their own as his running mate without any contribution from their side, and for his development projects in the ancient clan. On the second hand they want to bring all they can to the table so as to justify their possible future demands when the new government takes off.

But beyond these first three reasons, there is a fourth but unspoken one; a common Mbaike person is reading the lines of Gov. Okorocha?s relationship with Madumere and sees it as pointing to the path of succession of the former by the later by human permutations come 2019. Whether real or imaginary, this issue is taken serious among the Mbaike brothers. Political elites of Mbaike are of the common view that the choice of Madumere by Gov. Okorocha has brought Mbaike closer to the Douglas House in view of the 2019 elections. Powerful political figures of Mbaike extraction are already building powerful coalitions that will guarantee a 100% victory for the APC in Mbaitoli and Ikeduru. Ironically and to buttress my earlier point, this coalition building is headed by one of the most powerful political figures in Imo state who incidentally was the state chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, during the 2011 elections.

During the 2011 elections, Chief Malcolm Nlemigbo, a leading political figure in Mbaike nation and state Chairman of the PDP in 2011 toed opposing paths with Gov. Okorocha of then APGA. In fact, Chief Nlemigbo vowed to go on exile should the Okorocha-Agbaso ticket win the 2011 guber elections. But today, something is making same Chief Nlemigbo be on the reserve side of his position in 2011. In fact, the former PDP chief is today engineering a process that is building one of the broadest grand coalition and powerful support base for the Okorocha-Madumere ticket. Nlemigbo has been working to convince his Mbaike brothers that the 2015 election is not about Okorocha. He insists it is about Madumere and the future of Mbaike in the politics of Imo state and Nigeria. The summary of Chief Nlemigbo?s message to his Mbaike brothers now is that the Okorocha-Madumere ticket is the most credible choice, and that no one who loves Mbaitoli and Ikeduru will vote otherwise. That message seems to be sinking too fast and gaining massive acceptance beyond party lines. Today, it is indisputable to say that the Mbaike nation has fallen for Okorocha-Madumere and the APC party, except for few pockets of voters. So what made Chief Nlemigbo like many other sons and daughters of Mbaike to change their rhetoric? Madumere is the clean cut number one reason and no one can ignore that fact.

So Gov. Okorocha?s strategic choice of his running mate is doing the magic as the eve of the 2015 elections draws closer. Again, without underrating the place of the other voting blocs in Imo state politics, there is no debate over the established fact that he who holds the Mbaike bloc vote is closer to victory at the poll than his rivals. Gov. Okorocha of the APC and his party are holding that all powerful bloc in their palms now if massive support is anything to go by. We keep our fingers crossed as we watch the developments and see if Mbaike nation, the powerful brothers of Prince Eze Madumere, will change their mind against one of their own as they go to the poll to decide who becomes the next governor of Imo state and which party will control Mbaike at all levels of the polity.

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