2016: Is It Mahama And Nana Addo For President?

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Nana Akufo-Addo and President John Mahama
Nana Akufo-Addo and President John Mahama

The New Patriotic Party vision and dynamics after the Tamale Congress with the catch phrase ?New Plan for Power? (NPP) is gradually weathering down with new internal evil axis coming from the kingmakers, founding fathers and party faithfull?s who are controlling the direction of the party from behind, despite there is an elected executive?s in place.

There is always a process in any political game, carefully been called and known in any election contest as dynamics. The political atmosphere in present Ghana now is very demanding associated with economic challenges pointing to low relative growth with some major sectors, such as micro and macro economic stability is threatening the government to make gains in its entire political manifesto to bring better Ghana to all Ghanaians as the National Democratic Congress look forward to renew their mandate in 2016 general election.

PARTY UNITY

The New Patriotic Party internal political dynamics can best be described as plutocracy, where, only people with financial clouds, ego, and connections with the party wigs only have a say in the affairs of the party. Unfortunately the grass roots of the party is quiet on the war path beginning to copy the resemblance of the king makers destroying the unity of the party through negative utterances from the members.

There is a culture in the party that is giving a new name to plutocracy in NPP; that can be considered as blocks and factions with the new agenda to collapse the working machinery of the entire executive just to help and for the sake of one man before thinking about the larger picture of electoral strategy.

The two main blocks within the NPP fraternity is gradually lowering the strength and grass roots participation of the party and the negative image is wavering through for the past months is likely going to give birth to another defeat if care is not taken.

The new entire executives have caught a cold of confusion in mapping a new strategy for the party. The recent negative media headlines which can best be describe as free for all, approach where supporters of the candidates going for the flag bearer contest has really make the party to lose the position as the alternative govt. to NDC. Though within the strategy plans of the executives, the party believes that with time the party can forge ahead to bury their differences to win power come 2016 is an illusion.

Strategically the outcome of the Electoral College results has explode like a bomb to send some factions to revolt to resist the unity agenda that can drive the mission and the vision of the 2016 campaign to victory. The call for some contestant to step down for Nana to lead the party is unfounded and baseless and undemocratic.

There is an internal cold attitude towards some contestant going for the primaries of the flag bearer ship with the mind to nurture their future political ambition for 2020 presidential election. This posture can served as platform to resist any new dynamics by involving them to be part of strategic position to contribute their quota as a unity force to pursue 2016 campaign in capturing power for the party.

According to Joseph Schumpeter (Corner and Peels, 2003) to focused on another common point in relation between politics and market. To the extent that a company negotiates selling oil, politicians negotiate votes; both follow the universal rule of demand and supply. Successful businesses as well as successful politics means having a product those consumers are willing to choose; the competition shows that the best wins.

There is a tendency of NPP refusing to work into the future how things can change as National Democratic Congress is struggling to show an admission of accepting the true state of the economy as both major two political parties are counting days and calendar year to 2016 election. Strategically, one and half years in politics are a very long way to go and the hurdle ahead of NDC looks to be very hard and difficult. While NDC as a party has a culture and the machinery to manage any internal political issues that affects them, to forge ahead in unity to win power back, since the party knows what to sale and what the electorate are looking for.

By all projections, the NPP is going to face another major political storm in their forth coming parliamentary seats. We can recalled that, the last contest in the NPP circles on the primaries of parliamentary candidates was faced with the same negative dynamics on Nana Addo and Alan Kwadwo Kyremanten line.

In the last contest Nana Addo was able to influence some primaries. For example, the Hon. Kye Mensah, the minority leader was allowed to go unopposed, on the hindsight all projections point to the fact that Nana Addo is going to win the 2012 NPP primaries flag bearer election. As the party successfully come out from the Tamale congress with new leadership and different fractured approach to manage the affairs of the party, the rules of the game of parliamentary primaries is another chaotic problem the party is going to face and it is going to give birth to another confusion that is likely going to face the national campaign of the NPP.

The 2016 parliamentary primary elections is going to give birth to independent candidates for both main political parties? And how is it going to play out? This is another storm both parties must manage. Politically, Ghanaians seems to be dissatisfied with NDC as the government seat on the tenterhooks during the elections court trials and the govt. is finding it very difficult to strive through the storm of creating the better Ghana agenda as promise in their manifesto. The NPP on the other side does not look to be the best alternative, as they are finding it very difficult to put their house in other.

Statistically, counting on the projection and the figures from the 2012 elections, there is a huge challenge ahead of the two major leading parties. Above all the NPP is at a disadvantage where, the total national presidential results behooves on the NPP to work extra hard to turn the fortunes of the past electoral results. The culture of ethnic dynamics in our politics is likely going to affects the chances of the NPP in 2016.

By all projections Nana Akufo Addo?? always lost the marginal votes in all the two major presidential elections that he contested on the tickets of the NPP. While the party is suffering from cohesion and team spirit to battle the 2016 election for victory, the NDC on the other hand is quiet gathering moment in working on the entire economic to drive the 2016 election with hope and brand. The president seems to maintain the positive brand and with the strong NDC campaign machinery the government is pointing to another victory come 2016. For example looking at these figures from 2012 elections;

Nana Akufo Addo ???Presidential Total results in 2012 was 47.74%

Below is the regional breakdown as follows:

Ashanti Region 70.86%

Brong Ahafo: 47.33%

Central Region: 45.53%

Eastern Region: 56.91%

Greater Accra: 46.92%

Northern Region: 39.11%

Upper East: 29.29%

Upper West: 29.26%

Volta Region: 12.93%

Western region: 43.80%

  1. John Dramani Mahamah Presidential Total results in 2012 was 50.70%

Below is the regional breakdown as follows:

Ashanti Region 28.35%

Brong Ahafo: 51.49%

Central Region: 52.12%

Eastern Region: 42.03%

Greater Accra: 52.31%

Northern Region: 58.23%

Upper East: 66.43%

Upper West: 65.54%

Volta Region: 85.47%

Western region: 54.42%

Credit: Electoral Commission

The Nana Akufo Addo factor in the primaries of the flag bearer contest is strategically skewed to favour the two times defeated candidate is heading towards a disaster. Strategically, Nana Addo is passing through a process to stand as a national figure to stand on the NPP tickets to win the majority of the percentage votes from the electorate in the 6th Dec. national election 2016.

The strategy and dynamics set in motion for Nana is not painting a picture of unity and national cohesion where right after the contest, the big fall out would be in position to join the national campaign since the deadly political machines set in motion from the camps of the friends of Nana is really dividing the front of the party to forge a common agenda in the coming presidential election in Dec. 2016.

There are major issues which are going to play out in the Dec. 2016 election, such as ethnic, vote buying of cash donation, issues of corruption and development would be the focus of the discourse in the coming 2016 election.

By all projections, is it feasible for Nana Addo to win all the four regions which goes to President John Dramani Mahamah in the 2012 elections? Is Nana Addo campaign machinery up to the task to increase the Ashanti, Eastern and the Western region votes? As against this background what would be the new dynamics and strategy that is going to work for Nana to change the votes from Northern Region, Upper East, Upper West, Volta Region, Western and Eastern region from the table above that would make Nana to change the votes in the Dec. 2016 election.

It is on record that, the campaign machinery of NDC is known to be a chameleon in nature, where the party always plays into the gallery of winning the sympathy of the electorate is going to work effectively since the ethnic cards from the North would definitely go to the president. What would change is losing a percentage votes, but the president would win the popular votes from all the Northern regions in 2016. The trends in the city of Accra and Tema both parties are going to share the votes.

By my projections, the government is quiet going to win if all the, ongoing projects started by the government would see the light of completion the NDC is likely going to win the majority votes in Accra and Tema respectively.

The NPP is really facing a big challenge in terms of financial support to pursue an effective campaign, since the credibility of Nana is painting a picture of defeat and not a positive hope, and not appealing for major financiers to come in since age is another challenge holding him back. The president look very promising and appealing, though the government is facing a lot of difficult times for the past two years in office, the NDC has the golden opportunity to turn things around from Jan. 2015 to Dec. 6th 2016.

The government is holding back a lot of sympathy to strive on the challenges by involving the electorate to be part of the problem solving agenda in creating a better Ghana. The government attitudes and posturing is painting a picture of hopes and confidence which speaks well for the government to gather momentum to solve the problems facing the country.

The NPP has a huge task ahead of them to convince the electorate as the best alternative to NDC since, be an alternative is not just on the silver platter where the party internal problems is tearing the party apart.

By AYM KUKAH

Email, [email protected]

 

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